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The mild downturns in the US in 1990- were accompanied in Canada by a severe recession in the former case and no recession in the latter.

This paper looks at some of the reasons for these different outcomes.

It shows a recession from the quarter following the peak through the quarter of the trough (i.e.

Industrial production has continued to grow in early 2010 as, in all likelihood, has output.

By the end of the current quarter the American economy may have returned to its pre-recession peak in real GDP. Prominent voices like Northwestern University's Robert Gordon, Harvard's Jeffrey Frankel, and Stanford's Robert Hall have declared the recession dead and gone.

And committee member Robert Gordon was quite adamant in arguing that the committee had enough information to make a call and to name June of 2009 the trough.

In the summer of 2009 real GDP and industrial production hit bottom and resumed growth, and expansion in both measures strengthened as the year ended.

But those men all sit on the National Bureau of Economic Research's recession-dating committee, responsible for pinpointing the beginning and end of business cycles.

On April 12th that committee announced that it was not able to set an official end-date for the American recession.

That a date has not yet been chosen is not that unusual; the committee has taken longer to decide in past recessions.

The choice to delay a conclusive statement may have been an act of caution, to avoid a black eye in the event that the economy contracts again before reaching its previous peak. Recent data indicate that recovery in manufacturing is well established, and service-industry expansion has picked up pace in each of the past three months.

The Committee released its new findings in August 2017.

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