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As good as Pletcher is and he is one of the best ever, I can make a pretty good case that even his Derby winners were flukes as a result of the horses getting on the right part of the track and riding a conveyor belt home.

Brown is much newer to the Derby, but I need to see him win one before I will believe he knows how to do it.

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This is very much a blueblood Derby: few cheap horses allowed, unknown trainers hard to find.

The final six major preps were won the sport’s dominant trainers — Todd Pletcher (4), Baffert (1) and Chad Brown (1).

So it is Justify on top with the four Pletchers — Audible, Magnum Moon, Vino Rosso and Noble Indy — and the Brown, Good Magic off my exacta tickets.

I am tossing the other speed horses and looking for one of the late running longshots like Lone Sailor, Hofburg and Solomini to be second. If he comes into and out of the first turn in similar position to the last four Derby winners, I will feel very confident and start looking through the field to see where my exacta, trifecta and superfecta horses are in the run down the backstretch. The horse moving the best on that turn is often the winner. I would like to see Justify have daylight on the field by the top of the stretch. If you hear it once this week, you will hear it a thousand times. Actually, they change nothing with a horse like Justify or the last four Derby winners.That’s because Always Dreaming, Nyquist, American Pharoah and California Chrome all had terrific early speed, the kind of speed to make the vast majority of the 20 horses disappear in the first 100 yards.Mendelssohn cost million at Keeneland in September 2016.

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